This text was originally written in 2012, but left unpublished until 2024. Apart from the odd addendum, the publication follows more-or-less as was, with the corresponding caveat that the text reflects my 2012 take, which might or might not (even absent an addendum) match my 2024 take.
In life, there are many “What if?”s: What if I had done X instead of Y? What if event E had not taken place (or had another outcome)?
This page deals with some of my own experiences in this regard, originally starting just as musing around the “girl in the disco example” below.
In my case, some of the very largest include:
What if my parents had not divorced?
Likely consequences include my growing up in a better environment, with a wider set of external influences, and with less psychological issues. However, the impact through various ripple and side-effects could be far greater. For instance, the divorce led to both a career change (their employer, the Salvation Army, frowned upon divorces) and a relocation for both my parents. (In the case of my mother, as well as me and my sister, to the middle-of-nowhere three-thousand-inhabitants town where my maternal grandparents lived.)
Here and below the list of further speculations could be made very large; in particular, considering that any and all future events would be replaced by another set of events (although some broad tendencies and developments might end up very similar). I will not attempt to go into any deeper detail (at least not at this juncture; it might prove an interesting exercise at some future time). Obviously, in the end, any such speculation might be entirely off the mark. At an extreme, I might have died in a car accident five minutes into an alternate reality.
Coincidentally, I was considering this relocation from another angle, namely “What if Mother had not moved back to her childhood town?”, just a few months before my 2024 work. My main take at that time was happiness over having spent quite a few of my childhood years in such a near-nature environment. In particular, much time was spent in and around my grandparents’ house, which had a big lawn, trees, bushes, berries, home-grown potatoes, and whatnots—and was just a stone’s throw away from an actual forest. For a young child, this was a truly great physical environment.
(Of course, this is only one of the subsequent questions that followed from the divorce, and I would have preferred a whole family even in a big-city environment.)
What if I had remained in (or returned to) Sweden?
Obvious consequences include less money, better career chances (with easier communications and less cultural adjustment), and greater contact with my parents and other relatives. (The latter has shrunk continually since I moved to Germany. and is now quite small).
By 2024, several deaths, including my mother’s, have closed some windows entirely.
What if I had chosen an academic career?
This one is particularly hard to predict. While I had the brains for a career even in math (the most likely choice), I must admit certain doubts to my ability to adjust in a sufficiently timely manner (working methods, lack of humility, publication pressure) to reach the levels that I would have hoped for. At the same time, this type of work would likely have been more rewarding to me on a personal level.
Still, the one “What if?” that fascinates me, that always pops into my mind when I consider “What if?”s, is far more trivial:
During my early days in Germany, I and the other exchange students were given a preparatory course in German and German society by some native students. As one of several measures to integrate and entertain us, the teachers once took us to a disco. After some 20-to-30 minutes, I was sufficiently bored and annoyed at the loud music and crowded environment that I decided to leave. As I was nearing the exit, I felt my hands grabbed by a girl—and, being anxious to leave, I just extracted my hands and moved on without even looking at her. (My upper body being turned side-ways to pass through the crowd at the time, with my head still facing forwards.)
Herein lies one of the sources of my fascination: The spectrum of potential outcomes, had I acted differently, is enormous:
On one extreme, I might have looked down and been turned off; or she might only have wanted the one dance, after which our interaction would have ended.
On the other, she might have been a future long-term partner or even wife.
In the wide range between the extremes, we have scenarios like a short-term fling, a one-night stand, or just a pleasant evening.
Uncertainty and possibility exists on other planes too, e.g. whether she was someone my own age, an illegally present 14 y.o., or a delusional 30-something. An interesting question is whether she was a complete stranger or someone from within the group—something which could have had a considerably effect on the likelihoods of the above developments. Notably, with a bit of luck, someone within the group might already have had a crush on me.
The second reason for my fascination is that this was also the last time that I bothered with the integration activities, and from here on until I entered the work-force, I grew increasingly isolated, too a degree that I, with hindsight, must consider unhealthy—not to mention missing most of my last chances at a carefree student’s life. Even a brief fling might have kept this development in check; indeed, even a more positive impression of the evening might have had a non-trivial impact. Seeing that I was out the door ten or twenty seconds later, it could be argued that the pivotal point or the point of no return was that very moment of hand-holding.
Looking at the “wife extreme”, this would obviously have been life-changing on a level comparable to the other examples. However, seeing that I (writing in January 2012, shortly before turning 37) have never even been close to marrying, this is not a likely development. In contrast, the decision of whether to move to Germany or to remain in Sweden would definitely have had a major impact—and the incident in the disco has a trivial “expectation value” in comparison.
The width of the spectrum is of great importance: Just like everyone else, I have many other “What if?”s that deal with the opposite sex; however, none which fascinates me in the same way—even when the likelihood of considerable impact was objectively larger. (Including “What if I had been more responsive to that girl in college who appeared to be my groupie?” and “What if I had asked out that lovely French colleague who was on my mind for so long?”. Unlike most others, however, I find little room for “What if?”s in the relationships that did happen: That the current match was a poor one, without a long-term future, has usually been clear within days or weeks, and there has never been any single pivotal point where a “What if?” could have turned things in a different direction.)
However, a part of this fascination is of a representative character, the most prominent example within and the archetype of the group of romantic and sexual missed opportunities. (Which in my case likely is larger than for the average man.) Indeed, just like the proportion of text on this page dealing with the actual incident is comparatively small, so my own thoughts tend to circle around the event—not permanently land on it. Instead it is a red thread within and a catalyst for my thoughts.
I seem to recall describing this event from another perspective (likely, some variation of “I hate discos”) in a more recent text, but have not been able to find where on short notice.
This example is interesting in another regard: Sometimes, there are things that pop into my mind every now and then for years, and somehow seem important to me, but then disappear from my mind once I have written something about them. Here, I might have thought back on the “What if?” several times per year, on average, going from 1997 to 2012, but my thoughts since 2012 have (a) been much rarer, (b) turned towards “I hate discos”. Indeed, I have not visited a disco even once in the 27-ish years since the event. Had I written this text today, I would certainly have viewed either divorce or moving to Germany as “the big one”. The aforementioned “lovely French colleague” is another example—she was often on my mind until that text was written; afterwards, she just became someone from my past.
(Even in 2012, however and as noted, the status as “the big one” was a matter of my personal fascination—not of objective importance. What is fascinating and what is important are often very different things.)
For a better understanding of my views and actions, it might help to consider an analogy with potato chips and Brussels sprouts:
The one tastes well and is generally pleasant to eat, but is unhealthy.
The other is healthy, but has a deterring taste and provides an unpleasant eating experience.
Naturally, I would rather eat potato chips—but I might actually be better off with the Brussels sprouts.
Similarly, there are many things in the social area that I dislike and would rather not bother with (and many more that might be somewhat positive but fall well short of the fun to be had with my computer or a good book), but from which I might still benefit or have benefited when I was younger. This includes e.g. more partying and socializing.
A significant hitch with the analogy, obviously, is that potato chips grow problematic even in comparatively small doses whereas it takes an extreme dominance of solitude before it becomes a long-term problem. Similarly, the positive effects of, e.g., more partying underlie very rapid diminishing returns—and under no circumstances do I suggest that more partying would be the right way to go for the average student. The general principle, however, should be clear.
Above, my main concern is on factors like increasing the chances of a happy and healthy life. Other positive effects (of socializing, etc.) might be present, e.g. in that someone more socially active has a greater chance of finding a woman who does have long-term potential.
An important example is networking. Networking is not only a chore, but something ethically dubious in that it often amounts to using the employer’s resources for own gain, making choices to one’s own advantage at the cost of the employer, failing in due diligence towards the employer for own gain, etc. (This only partially through the networking as such. The more important part is the later events in the general family of mutual backscratching, be it with co-workers or with external parties.) The world needs less networking—not more.
The sad truth, however, is that not networking brings a considerable handicap in terms of e.g. career success—and to prevent others from networking, mutual backscratching at the cost of the employer, etc., is not practical.
A common thread among “What if”s and missed opportunities relating to humans (not limited to women), socializing, networking, etc., with me, is that I tend to automatically react to the immediate nature of e.g. a proposal to socialize, without giving the potential long-term effects due concern. A typical example is turning down a social activity that is too obnoxious or offered on too short a notice so that I can spend time on activities that I like better (including reading and writing). What invariably happens when I, with no previous notice, am offered a metaphorical Brussels sprout is that I turn it down. In the case of women, there is the additional complication that I long took their behaviors at face value—rarely even considering the possibility of an unstated wish or an openness to being approached before the (potential) opportunity had already passed.
Examples of this appear to be present at more or less any age, including e.g.:
As a (possibly) eight y.o., I visited the first meeting of a newly formed local “detective school” for children. When I came home, I learned that I had missed an episode of a favorite TV series—and immediately and categorically ruled out any further visits.
With hindsight, the increased social contacts and experiences might have been very beneficial to the young me—more so than a TV show. Certainly, I suspect that this was my mother’s idea behind sending me. (Together with her ill-advised prejudice against introversion.)
In another disco-related event, shortly before I moved to Stockholm to study, my step-aunt, who already lived there, offered to have her daughters take me to a few discos. I immediately declined, truthfully stating that such activities were of no interest to me.
Again, with hindsight, this might have been something that I could have benefited from, including by greater sexual and romantic opportunities, being exposed to a wider range of experiences, and gaining more social contacts. (The following few years were still the most socially active of my life; however, well below the typical student. Of course and in fairness to me, the typical student appears to overdo it rather considerably.)
Recently turning down participation in a “Blood Bowl” league started by my current colleagues—fearing that a long day in the office would be followed by forced activities in the evening. (OTOH, there are plenty of other forms of socializing in the office and I actually need considerable time alone, which has lead me to decline a repeated offer with greater deliberation—the first time around, however, the rejection was of the knee-jerk kind described above.)
By 2024, I have no recollection of this or what “Blood Bowl” at all is. From an Internet-search, it appears to be some type of board and/or role-playing game.
One of the central ideas in my first novel is that small changes can have large effects, including how a misunderstanding could give a newborn child a different name than intended, which, in turn and ultimately, brought a very great change in life. (TODO link after eventual publication.) Natural questions, then, include whether “obvious” equals “big”, “big” in decision equals “big” in effect, and similar.
A very similar situation did arise in my own life (but I do not remember whether this was a source of inspiration or just coincidence):
As noted, I ended up as an immigrant to Germany. But for one trifling event, many years earlier, this would likely not have happened: My mother claimed (incorrectly!) that more students took French as their mandatory third language than German. This ultimately made me chose German as my own third language, which by 1997 influenced my decision to go to specifically Germany, and, ultimately, caused me to have spent more than half my life (to date) in Germany.
During my own school years, we had mandatory English as a second language from the 4th grade, and a mandatory third language from the 7th. For the latter, the available choices (at least where I lived) were French and German.
My idea behind choosing German was to have a rarer skill and to do something rarer—and I would probably have gone with French, had my mother had her facts straight or if other information sources had been readily available. I do not know what would have happened, had I picked French: Maybe, I would have gone to France instead, preferred an English-language destination, or skipped the exchange student phase altogether; maybe, I would have chosen to return from, hypothetically, France even though I did stay in Germany; etc. However, I can say with certainty that my life would have been very different in a great many ways.
(While, likely, being similar in a great many others, because I would, in my core, have been the same person and would likely have made many other decisions, missed and taken many opportunities, whatnot, in a similar manner to in Germany. For instance, I would, almost certainly, still have preferred spending time with my computer or a good book to dancing in discos, with whatever that might imply in secondary consequences.)
An overlapping idea in my fictional writings is that it is rarely a single event/choice/whatnot that brings about a certain situation. For instance, even given maternal misinformation and my choice of third language, I might have made other choices that caused me to not live in Germany. (Including two very obvious points of potential divergence, namely, my decision to go to Germany as an exchange student and my decision to remain there afterwards; with countless smaller events that, like that maternal misinformation, might have influenced those decisions, with or without my awareness of the influence.)